Clear Power Canada is a clear vitality suppose tank on the Morris J. Wosk Centre for Dialogue at Simon Fraser College. Via media briefs, we goal to supply helpful factual and contextual data associated to Canada’s clear vitality transition. Please use this as a useful resource, and tell us if there are any subjects that you just want to see for future media briefs.
The warfare in Ukraine and the related vitality disaster have squeezed family vitality payments around the globe. In response, many jurisdictions—notably within the EU—are working to diversify vitality provide away from fossil fuels towards cleaner alternate options similar to wind, photo voltaic and hydrogen.
Proof means that the vitality transition isn’t solely essential to keep away from the worst impacts of local weather change, but in addition to deal with the vitality insecurity and worth volatility being felt by customers around the globe. Certainly, a lot of research recommend that Canadians shall be spending much less on vitality in a net-zero world.
This media transient summarizes out there analysis on the potential impacts of the vitality transition on family vitality spending in Canada.
1. The Worldwide Power Company’s World Power Outlook 2021 discovered that, beneath present world insurance policies, common family vitality payments in superior economies would decline between 2020 and 2050. Underneath a state of affairs the place governments introduce insurance policies to achieve web zero by 2050, payments would decline even additional. Whereas electrical energy payments are set to be larger in a net-zero world attributable to elevated use of electrical energy, value financial savings from vitality effectivity and the shortage of fossil-fuel-related expenditure (like gasoline for vehicles and pure fuel for heating) imply that total family vitality payments are projected to be decrease. Extra formidable local weather insurance policies would scale back the monetary impression of fossil gasoline worth shocks on households, such because the current one in Europe.
2. Equally, 2022’s World Power Outlook signifies {that a} net-zero state of affairs would require much less shopper spending on vitality in 2030 than in a state of affairs the place solely present insurance policies are retained, and fewer total than was spent in 2021. The common value per unit of electrical energy in a web zero 2050 is ready to be 10% beneath 2021 ranges.
3. The Canadian Local weather Institute’s report on Canada’s Web-Zero Future, utilizing modelling by Navius analysis, examined the proportion of family earnings spent on vitality companies (together with residence heating, electrical energy, and transportation). The report discovered that households throughout all earnings teams are prone to spend much less in 2050 in comparison with 2020. This is because of three causes:
- Power effectivity is ready to enhance, considerably lowering complete vitality use.
- The extra prices of fresh applied sciences could be greater than offset by the financial savings derived from their lowered vitality consumption. Whereas the flexibility to pay larger upfront prices varies by earnings group, public coverage and program options similar to rebates or incentives may help handle this concern.
- Financial development nationwide from 2020 to 2050 would trigger common incomes to rise, that means even when vitality spending holds regular in absolute phrases for some households, the share of earnings spent on vitality would decline.
4. When the impacts of local weather change are thought of, affordability is negatively impacted, emphasizing the significance of local weather motion and clear vitality to convey down economy-wide prices over the approaching a long time. One other examine from the Canadian Local weather Institute discovered that inaction on local weather may have vital impacts on affordability. In response to the report, Canada’s GDP may fall by 12% by the top of the century whereas family incomes may fall as a lot as 18% in comparison with a “stable-climate” state of affairs. The examine tasks that decrease earnings households could be probably the most adversely affected.
5. A examine from researchers at Oxford College discovered that switching from fossil fuels to renewables may save the world between US$5 trillion and US$12 trillion by 2050, emphasizing that “a speedy inexperienced vitality transition is prone to be useful, even when local weather change weren’t an issue.” The examine argues, particularly, that there are minimal trade-offs related to the vitality transition and that “a greener, more healthy, and safer world vitality system can also be prone to be cheaper.” When the social value of carbon is included within the evaluation (i.e. the prices to our financial system by way of harm from local weather change per unit of carbon emitted), the financial savings are even larger, within the vary of US$31 trillion to US$775 trillion relying on the assumed social value of carbon and low cost charge.
6. In lots of instances, clear electrical energy already prices customers lower than fossil-fuel-powered electrical energy.
- South Australia will get 62% of its electrical energy from wind and photo voltaic mixed with grid-scale battery storage. Since 2018, family vitality payments have declined some A$300, whereas the state’s grid is the one one within the nation to not have misplaced a single hour of electrical energy.
7. Many local weather options contain applied sciences that may save Canadians cash total, even when they value extra upfront. That is notably related for transportation and buildings.
- Earlier this 12 months, Clear Power Canada analyzed a lot of common electrical automobile fashions, evaluating their complete possession prices with that of fuel equivalents. With only one exception, the electrical model of each automobile analyzed was cheaper, normally considerably so. Particularly, the evaluation discovered that the electrical Hyundai Kona, Canada’s second best-selling EV in 2021 (after the Tesla Mannequin 3), is $17,800 cheaper to personal than the gas-powered Kona with a median fuel worth of $2. Even at a fuel worth of $1.45, the Kona remains to be $10,500 cheaper. The electrical Chevrolet Bolt supplied much more value financial savings, with the comparable gas-powered Toyota Corolla costing $22,000 extra over its lifetime at a $2 fuel worth.
- Canadian households would save $151 yearly per family on common with best-in-class vitality effectivity insurance policies in place, based on 2018 modelling performed by Dunsky Power Consulting on behalf of Clear Power Canada and Effectivity Canada. For households that retrofit their properties, financial savings could be far larger. Throughout the Canadian financial system, such measures would result in $1.8 billion in web residential financial savings and $4.9 billion in web industrial and industrial financial savings.
